Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juarez vs Tigres Juarez vs Tigres

JUAREZJUAREZ

0-0-6  |  Home

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

TIGRESTIGRES

1-2-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
JUAREZ
35%
DRAW
31%
TIGRES
35%
▲ Edge: +27.40% (FC Juarez)
23% Book Odds: +343
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +259
53% Book Odds: -113
Book Implied: 22.60% / 27.90% / 53.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 40%
Under 2.5 60%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
JUAREZ
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Juarez)
JuarezJuarez (+0.5) 0 TigresTigres (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.7% / 57.3%

Shots (On Goal)

14(5) / 13(5)

Corners

2 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juarez 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juarez)

FC Juarez By 1 goal

21.1%

FC Juarez By 2+ goals

15.9%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

21.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
JUAREZ
Book Implied: 1
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
JUAREZ
Book Implied: 1
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw Loss
45% Win Prob
C
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI FC Juarez (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim FC Juarez (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 Juarez vs Tigres 2 - 0
Mar 22, 2026 Juarez vs Tigres 2 - 1
Jul 19, 2025 Tigres vs Juarez 1 - 0
Feb 25, 2025 Tigres vs Juarez 0 - 1
Sep 22, 2024 Juarez vs Tigres 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +900.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Juarez: 10.0
Losses (L5) +400.0% more
Tigres: 0.0 vs Juarez: 4.0
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Juarez: 0.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Juarez: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 1.0 0
FC Juarez Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
FC Juarez (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juarez Share: 50.0% Tigres UANL Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juarez
Tigres UANL
FC Juarez
Tigres UANL
ML
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
67% 6-3
0% 0-9
ATS
38% 3-5-1
76% 6-2
78% 7-2
25% 2-6-1
TTL
53% 4-4
33% 3-6
76% 6-2
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.