Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Puebla vs Atlante Puebla vs Atlante

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
61%
DRAW
21%
ATLANTE
18%
▲ Edge: +15% (Atlante)
41% Book Odds: +144
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +248
34% Book Odds: +198
Book Implied: 41% / 28.70% / 33.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Puebla)
PueblaPuebla (-0.2) 0 AtlanteAtlante (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.6% / 46.4%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 21(5)

Corners

6 / 11

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Puebla By 1 goal

26.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlante By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Puebla Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Puebla Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Puebla (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Puebla (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 Puebla vs Atlante 1 - 1
Jan 13, 2026 Puebla vs Atlante 2 - 1
Jul 18, 2025 Atlante vs Puebla 2 - 1
Jan 28, 2025 Puebla vs Atlante 0 - 1
Aug 30, 2024 Atlante vs Puebla 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Puebla: 2.0 vs Atlante: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Puebla: 4.0 vs Atlante: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Puebla: 5.0 vs Atlante: 7.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Atlante: 2.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlante Score 1.0 1
Puebla Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Puebla (Home) vs Atlante (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Puebla Share: 66.7% Atlante Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
Atlante
Puebla
Atlante
ML
45% 5-6
55% 6-5
45% 5-6
9% 1-10
ATS
65% 5-3-2
53% 5-4-1
67% 5-2-3
24% 2-6-2
TTL
40% 4-6-1
18% 2-9
45% 5-6
64% 7-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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