Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / León vs Atl. San Luis León vs Atl. San Luis

LEÓNLEÓN

5-3-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio León

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-5  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
61%
DRAW
21%
ATL. SAN LUIS
18%
▲ Edge: +25.90% (Atlético de San Luis)
52% Book Odds: -107
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +290
26% Book Odds: +284
Book Implied: 51.70% / 25.60% / 26%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 61%
Under 2.75 39%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (León)
LeónLeón (-0.5) 0 Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

41.3% / 58.7%

Shots (On Goal)

23(9) / 13(2)

Corners

6 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around León -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

León By 1 goal

26.1%

León By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.60
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.60
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI León Win
48% Win Prob
C
Sim León Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI León (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim León (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 León vs Atl. San Luis 2 - 0
Apr 4, 2026 León vs Atl. San Luis 1 - 2
Mar 21, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs León 1 - 2
Jul 18, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs León 0 - 1
Jul 13, 2025 León vs Atl. San Luis 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
León: 6.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Atl. San Luis: 4.0 vs León: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.0 0
León Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
León (Home) vs Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
León Share: 66.7% Atlético de San Luis Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
Atlético de San Luis
León
Atlético de San Luis
ML
45% 5-6
27% 3-8
27% 3-8
45% 5-6
ATS
60% 4-3-3
60% 6-4-1
33% 2-5-3
56% 5-4-2
TTL
33% 3-7
30% 3-7-1
43% 4-6
70% 7-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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