MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
98-58 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
75-81 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 15-5 | 1.89 | 0.81 | 166.1 | 243 |
| Brandon Young | 9-4 | 3.65 | 1.37 | 145.2 | 118 |
15-5
W-L
9-4
1.89 Ldr
ERA
3.65
0.81 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
166.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
145.2
243 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
118
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
64%
ORIOLES
36%
BREWERS
68%
Book Odds: -215
ORIOLES
36%
Book Odds: +176
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
61%
Under 7.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Baltimore
3.2
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIL @ BAL
3 - 0
Sep 19, 2026
MIL @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 18, 2026
MIL @ BAL
6 - 5
May 21, 2025
BAL @ MIL
8 - 4
May 20, 2025
BAL @ MIL
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.743
▲
OPS
.711
154
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+29.5% more
Milwaukee: 3.6
vs
Baltimore: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.7%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.2
3
BAL Score
3.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.6
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 10.1
8.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.3
4.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.6
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +112
→
-215 / +176
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
110-60-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(53.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
76-89-5
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIL
BAL
MIL
ML
53%
83-73
61%
101-65
57%
90-69
52%
86-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
94-72
57%
90-68-1
49%
81-85
TTL
54%
81-70-5
41%
65-93-8
51%
78-75-6
51%
80-78-8
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