Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Diamondbacks NYY @ ARI

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

89-66  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

82-74  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Corbin Burnes
STARTING PITCHER

Corbin Burnes

#39 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Warren 10-6 3.89 1.36 148.0 147
Corbin Burnes 0-0 5.87 1.17 7.2 6
10-6 W-L 0-0
3.89 Ldr ERA 5.87
1.36 WHIP Ldr 1.17
148.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 7.2
147 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 6
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
46%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
YANKEES 49% Book Odds: +105
DIAMONDBACKS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
YankeesNYY (+1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

64.6%

Diamondbacks Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYY By 3-4 runs

9.2%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
A
Sim Diamondbacks (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 NYY @ ARI 4 - 8
Sep 19, 2026 NYY @ ARI 3 - 5
Sep 18, 2026 NYY @ ARI 9 - 2
Apr 3, 2025 ARI @ NYY 7 - 9
Apr 2, 2025 ARI @ NYY 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Arizona ARI
158
Games Played
158
4.59 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .244
.311
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.410 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.399
.721 ▲
OPS
.714
221 ▲
Home Runs
159
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +23.5% more
Arizona: 10.3 vs New York: 8.4
Errors (L5) +8.0% more
Arizona: 0.8 vs New York: 0.7
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
Arizona: 24.4% vs New York: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.5%
Arizona: 31.6% vs New York: 31.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.5 4
ARI Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.0 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 8.4 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 14.2 17.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -146 / +121 → +105 / -126 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
92-67-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
ARI
85-74-0 (53.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
74-80-5
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
68-85-6
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
NYY
ARI
NYY
ML
54% 85-73
47% 73-82
54% 84-73
52% 81-74
ATS
56% 89-69
59% 91-64
55% 86-71
53% 82-73
TTL
51% 77-73-8
52% 77-72-6
48% 70-77-9
52% 77-71-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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