Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Padres MIA @ SD

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

76-80  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

87-69  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sandy Alcantara
STARTING PITCHER

Sandy Alcantara

#22 | SP
@
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sandy Alcantara 13-10 3.84 1.23 206.0 149
Walker Buehler 8-6 4.58 1.37 143.1 122
13-10 W-L 8-6
3.84 Ldr ERA 4.58
1.23 Ldr WHIP 1.37
206.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 143.1
149 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 122
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
📊
PADRES
60%
MARLINS 44% Book Odds: +129
PADRES 61% Book Odds: -156
Book Implied: 43.70% / 60.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Padres Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIA @ SD 3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026 MIA @ SD 6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026 MIA @ SD 2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026 SD @ MIA 5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026 SD @ MIA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
San Diego SD
158
Games Played
158
4.45 ▲
Runs / Game
4.40
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.243
.327 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.398
.727 ▲
OPS
.716
163
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +34.3% more
San Diego: 20.6 vs Miami: 15.4
Home Runs (L5) +32.4% more
San Diego: 1.8 vs Miami: 1.4
Hits (L5) +25.8% more
San Diego: 12.1 vs Miami: 9.6
Home Runs (Season) +10.4% more
San Diego: 180.0 vs Miami: 163.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 3
SD Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 12.1 / 9.6 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.4 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 10.6 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 20.6 / 15.4 21.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -158 → +129 / -156
18%TICKETS82%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
24%TICKETS76%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
78-81-0 (49.1%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
88-70-0 (55.7%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
81-73-4
O: 52.6% / U: 47.4% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
74-80-4
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIA
SD
MIA
ML
51% 80-78
47% 75-83
52% 81-76
54% 85-71
ATS
54% 85-73
56% 89-69
55% 86-71
54% 84-72
TTL
51% 78-75-5
56% 87-67-4
54% 82-69-5
53% 81-71-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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