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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

73-83  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

60-96  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Dean Kremer
STARTING PITCHER

Dean Kremer

#13 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dean Kremer 3-5 5.35 1.24 77.1 74
Ryan Johnson 5-8 4.88 1.34 90.1 70
3-5 W-L 5-8
5.35 ERA Ldr 4.88
1.24 Ldr WHIP 1.34
77.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 90.1
74 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 70
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
50%
📊
ANGELS
50%
TWINS 54% Book Odds: -115
ANGELS 51% Book Odds: -104
Book Implied: 53.50% / 51%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Los Angeles)
TwinsMIN (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

36.3%

Angels Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ LAA 8 - 0
Sep 19, 2026 MIN @ LAA 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 MIN @ LAA 3 - 0
Sep 17, 2026 MIN @ LAA 4 - 5
Jul 12, 2026 LAA @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
187 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +89.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.1 vs Minnesota: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5) +11.4% more
Los Angeles: 11.1 vs Minnesota: 10.0
Home Runs (Season) +17.6% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +14.3% more
Minnesota: 13.9 vs Los Angeles: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.8 8
LAA Score 5.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.4 2.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 10.0 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 13.9 2.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -115 / -104 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
59%TICKETS41%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 8 ↑
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
MIN
LAA
MIN
ML
59% 96-66
52% 84-78
55% 89-73
50% 80-81
ATS
60% 97-65
59% 95-67
51% 82-80
59% 95-66
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 78-75-9
52% 82-75-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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