TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
77-79 | Road
7
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
78-78 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Spencer Miles
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Miles | 6-2 | 2.65 | 1.09 | 91.2 | 87 |
| Jacob deGrom | 11-9 | 3.79 | 1.07 | 154.1 | 194 |
6-2
W-L
11-9
2.65 Ldr
ERA
3.79
1.09
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
91.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 154.1
87
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 194
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
51%
RANGERS
49%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
40%
Book Odds: +148
RANGERS
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Texas
3.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
TOR @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ TEX
2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
TOR @ TEX
1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026
TEX @ TOR
3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
TEX @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.713
152
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+82.5% more
Toronto: 1.4
vs
Texas: 0.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Texas: 24.2%
Walks (L5)
+109.5% more
Texas: 4.9
vs
Toronto: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+62.6% more
Texas: 9.6
vs
Toronto: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.2
7
TEX Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.9
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 5.9
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 9.6
11.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.9 / 2.3
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +104
→
+148 / -180
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TOR
TEX
TOR
ML
53%
86-76
46%
74-87
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
90-71
61%
98-63
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
78-70-14
51%
80-76-5
55%
81-66-14
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
DL Hall's Three Postseason Wins Set Unlikely Brewers Franchise R…
Petey Halpin's Clutch Homer and Epic Bat Flip Propel Guardians t…
Dodgers Face Uphill Battle: Can They Overcome 3-0 Deficit Like 2…
Bryan Baker etches name in Rays history with postseason save rec…
Guardians Seek Home Turnaround in ALCS Game 3 Against Rays