WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
73-83 | Road
3
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
76-80 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 2-9 | 5.51 | 1.41 | 96.1 | 96 |
| Quinn Mathews | 2-3 | 3.62 | 1.39 | 37.1 | 36 |
2-9
W-L
2-3
5.51
ERA
Ldr 3.62
1.41
WHIP
Ldr 1.39
96.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
37.1
96 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
36
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
34%
CARDINALS
66%
▲ Edge: +9.60% (STL)
NATIONALS
48%
Book Odds: +108
CARDINALS
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
St. Louis
5.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ STL
3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
WSH @ STL
8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
WSH @ STL
9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
STL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026
STL @ WSH
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.744
▲
OPS
.691
210
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+27.2% more
St. Louis: 1.9
vs
Washington: 1.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.8% more
St. Louis: 10.2
vs
Washington: 8.1
Home Runs (L5)
+66.0% more
Washington: 0.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+32.5% more
Washington: 4.1
vs
St. Louis: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
3
STL Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.9 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.9
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.8
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 8.1
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 13.7
16.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132
→
+108 / -131
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
53%
85-74
57%
92-69
52%
84-77
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-68
53%
85-76
57%
91-70
TTL
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-78-6
50%
76-75-10
42%
65-90-6
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