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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

73-83  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

80-76  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Melton 8-4 2.52 1.10 110.2 90
Davis Martin 9-7 3.96 1.30 141.0 115
8-4 W-L 9-7
2.52 Ldr ERA 3.96
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.30
110.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 141.0
90 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 115
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
61%
📊
WHITE SOX
39%
▲ Edge: +10.60% (DET)
TIGERS 50% Book Odds: +100
WHITE SOX 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 50% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 65%
Under 8.0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

35.4%

White Sox Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 8
Sep 19, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 3
Sep 18, 2026 DET @ CHW 11 - 8
Sep 17, 2026 DET @ CHW 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 CHW @ DET 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.720
OPS
▲ .826
181 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5) +76.1% more
Detroit: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.3
Hits (L5) +41.5% more
Detroit: 10.0 vs Chicago: 5.8
Walks (L5) +28.2% more
Detroit: 4.3 vs Chicago: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.5 1
CHW Score 4.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.8 / 10.0 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 8.7 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 14.1 15.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.3 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -137 → +100 / -120 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
98%TICKETS2%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-81-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
CHW
97-70-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
DET
CHW
DET
ML
49% 82-87
54% 86-73
56% 94-75
54% 87-73
ATS
59% 100-69
64% 101-58
55% 93-76
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 97-70-2
46% 69-81-9
51% 85-82-2
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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