ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
92-64 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
77-79 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 9-9 | 3.07 | 1.26 | 137.2 | 100 |
| Hunter Brown | 6-3 | 3.43 | 1.29 | 97.0 | 110 |
9-9
W-L
6-3
3.07 Ldr
ERA
3.43
1.26 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
137.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
97.0
100
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
44%
ASTROS
56%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (ATL)
BRAVES
43%
Book Odds: +133
ASTROS
62%
Book Odds: -161
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
HOU @ ATL
3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025
HOU @ ATL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Houston
HOU
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.757
▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.8% more
Houston: 8.6
vs
Atlanta: 6.3
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
Houston: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+40.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+32.4% more
Atlanta: 3.0
vs
Houston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.5
4
HOU Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 10.1
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.3
11.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 17.3
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
+133 / -161
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
50%
81-82
46%
77-90
47%
77-87
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
96-71
55%
90-74
52%
87-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
83-73-11
45%
69-86-9
49%
76-80-11
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