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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

92-64  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

77-79  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Martin Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Martin Perez

#33 | SP
@
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Martin Perez 9-9 3.07 1.26 137.2 100
Hunter Brown 6-3 3.43 1.29 97.0 110
9-9 W-L 6-3
3.07 Ldr ERA 3.43
1.26 Ldr WHIP 1.29
137.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 97.0
100 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
44%
📊
ASTROS
56%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (ATL)
BRAVES 43% Book Odds: +133
ASTROS 62% Book Odds: -161
Book Implied: 42.90% / 61.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 55%
Under 8.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BravesATL (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

64.6%

Astros Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ATL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Astros Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 ATL @ HOU 4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 ATL @ HOU 6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026 ATL @ HOU 6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025 HOU @ ATL 3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025 HOU @ ATL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Houston HOU
159
Games Played
159
4.60 ▲
Runs / Game
4.45
.248 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.311
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.411
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .414
.722
OPS
▲ .727
201
Home Runs
▲ 218
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +35.8% more
Houston: 8.6 vs Atlanta: 6.3
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +8.5% more
Houston: 218.0 vs Atlanta: 201.0
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Houston: 72.7% vs Atlanta: 72.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.5 4
HOU Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 10.1 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.3 11.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 17.3 14.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → +133 / -161 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
93-66-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU
79-80-0 (49.7%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.2%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
73-78-8
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +0.1
HOU
77-73-9
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
50% 79-79
45% 71-86
46% 73-86
53% 84-74
ATS
55% 87-71
58% 91-66
55% 87-72
53% 83-75
TTL
45% 67-82-9
54% 80-69-8
43% 65-85-9
49% 73-76-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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