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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

87-69  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

72-84  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
David Peterson
STARTING PITCHER

David Peterson

#19 | Starting Pitcher
@
Rhett Lowder
STARTING PITCHER

Rhett Lowder

#25 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Peterson 8-8 5.11 1.55 137.1 124
Rhett Lowder 6-11 5.79 1.52 124.1 98
8-8 W-L 6-11
5.11 Ldr ERA 5.79
1.55 WHIP Ldr 1.52
137.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 124.1
124 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 98
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
49%
📊
REDS
51%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (CIN)
CUBS 62% Book Odds: -163
REDS 43% Book Odds: +134
Book Implied: 62% / 42.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 9.5 41%
Under 9.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.374
OPS
▲ .699
0
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +24.9%
Cincinnati: 39.4% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.5 9
CIN Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.5 4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 6.9 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 15.0 7.0 / 24.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.4 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -163 / +134 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
82%TICKETS18%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55% 88-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
51% 82-79
ATS
54% 86-73
61% 97-63-1
50% 80-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 81-73-5
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-72-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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