Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Rays BOS @ TB

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

84-72  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

95-60  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Patrick Sandoval
STARTING PITCHER

Patrick Sandoval

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Patrick Sandoval 1-6 4.99 1.79 57.2 62
Griffin Jax 7-10 3.80 1.20 104.1 110
1-6 W-L 7-10
4.99 ERA Ldr 3.80
1.79 WHIP Ldr 1.20
57.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 104.1
62 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
37%
📊
RAYS
63%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (TB)
RED SOX 44% Book Odds: +127
RAYS 61% Book Odds: -153
Book Implied: 44.10% / 60.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

63.7%

Rays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +37.5% more
Tampa Bay: 3.7 vs Boston: 2.7
OPS (Season) +31.9%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.8 1
TB Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.2 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 8.8 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 12.2 8.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143 → +127 / -153 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
26%TICKETS74%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
102-66-0 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
77-85-6
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 97-69
50% 80-80
58% 96-70
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 98-68
58% 93-67
55% 92-74
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 74-83-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 79-77-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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