ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
61-95 | Road
0
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
81-75 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Perkins | 3-11 | 6.14 | 1.48 | 110.0 | 127 |
| Gavin Williams | 13-8 | 3.78 | 1.10 | 174.0 | 235 |
3-11
W-L
13-8
6.14
ERA
Ldr 3.78
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
110.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 174.0
127
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 235
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
31%
GUARDIANS
69%
ATHLETICS
33%
Book Odds: +201
GUARDIANS
71%
Book Odds: -249
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 7.0
66%
Under 7.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
ATH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Athletics
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATH @ CLE
0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
ATH @ CLE
6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026
ATH @ CLE
3 - 5
May 3, 2026
CLE @ ATH
1 - 7
May 2, 2026
CLE @ ATH
14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.719
▲
OPS
.696
194
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+91.2% more
Cleveland: 2.2
vs
Athletics: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+57.5% more
Cleveland: 19.3
vs
Athletics: 12.2
Hits (L5)
+39.6% more
Cleveland: 10.5
vs
Athletics: 7.5
Walks (L5)
+29.9% more
Cleveland: 3.7
vs
Athletics: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.2
0
CLE Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 7.5
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.8
7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
19.3 / 12.2
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.8
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +153 / -186
→
+201 / -249
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
90-80-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
82-87-1
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATH
CLE
ATH
ML
54%
90-76
59%
95-67
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
95-71
52%
84-78
58%
97-70
50%
81-80
TTL
55%
90-74-2
54%
84-73-5
43%
71-93-2
42%
66-90-5
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