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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

67-89  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

79-77  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Lake Bachar
STARTING PITCHER

Lake Bachar

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Wacha 9-9 3.34 1.10 188.2 149
Lake Bachar 1-4 3.50 1.12 82.1 86
9-9 W-L 1-4
3.34 Ldr ERA 3.50
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.12
188.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 82.1
149 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 86
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
📊
PIRATES
50%
ROYALS 50% Book Odds: +100
PIRATES 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 50% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5 60%
Under 8.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
RoyalsKC (-1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

35.4%

Pirates Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
5.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 KC @ PIT 3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026 KC @ PIT 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 KC @ PIT 5 - 8
Jul 9, 2025 PIT @ KC 3 - 4
Jul 8, 2025 PIT @ KC 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.718
OPS
▲ .734
170
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +62.5% more
Pittsburgh: 1.8 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +43.8% more
Pittsburgh: 18.3 vs Kansas City: 12.8
Hits (L5) +21.4% more
Pittsburgh: 10.3 vs Kansas City: 8.5
Walks (L5) +12.1% more
Pittsburgh: 3.1 vs Kansas City: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 3
PIT Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.3 / 8.5 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.3 / 12.8 16.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -101 / -119 → +100 / -120
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
49%TICKETS51%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
KC
PIT
KC
ML
52% 82-77
55% 89-72
52% 85-78
56% 90-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 81-82
58% 93-67
TTL
47% 72-81-6
58% 90-64-7
50% 79-78-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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