PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
86-70 | Road
7
NEW YORK
METSNYM
71-85 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonah Tong
#21 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 17-6 | 2.93 | 1.22 | 193.2 | 215 |
| Jonah Tong | 2-1 | 3.43 | 1.19 | 21.0 | 20 |
17-6
W-L
2-1
2.93 Ldr
ERA
3.43
1.22
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
193.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
21.0
215 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
20
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
39%
METS
61%
▲ Edge: +17.80% (NYM)
PHILLIES
62%
Book Odds: -160
METS
43%
Book Odds: +132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
64%
Under 7.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
New York
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Mets
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
158
Games Played
158
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.312
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.397
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.709
▲
OPS
.704
180
Home Runs
▲
197
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+53.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
Philadelphia: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+25.8% more
New York: 9.6
vs
Philadelphia: 7.7
Total Bases (L5)
+21.0% more
New York: 13.9
vs
Philadelphia: 11.5
Errors (L5)
+10.0% more
New York: 0.2
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
7
NYM Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 7.7
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.4
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.5
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.5 / 4.2
0.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
-160 / +132
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
87-71-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
73-86-0
(45.9%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(42.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.8%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
74-75-9
O: 49.7% / U: 50.3%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
75-71-12
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50%
77-78
59%
92-65
48%
75-80
49%
77-80
ATS
59%
91-64
65%
102-55
49%
76-79
50%
78-79
TTL
55%
78-64-13
56%
84-65-8
51%
72-70-13
50%
74-74-8
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