Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Real Sociedad vs Atlético Real Sociedad vs Atlético

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

3-1-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 3:00 PM ET
Reale Arena

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

5-1-1  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
REAL SOCIEDAD
35%
DRAW
31%
ATLÉTICO
35%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (Atlético Madrid)
29% Book Odds: +240
DRAW --
48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 29.40% / % / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 47%
Under 2.5 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Real Sociedad)
Real SociedadReal Sociedad (+0.5) 0 AtléticoAtlético (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.4% / 46.6%

Shots (On Goal)

8(3) / 13(5)

Corners

9 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Real Sociedad 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Sociedad)

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

15.9%

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
35% Win Prob
C
Sim Atlético Madrid Win
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Real Sociedad (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim Atlético Madrid (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 Real Sociedad vs Atlético 0 - 3
Mar 7, 2026 Atlético vs Real Sociedad 3 - 2
Jan 4, 2026 Real Sociedad vs Atlético 1 - 1
May 10, 2025 Atlético vs Real Sociedad 4 - 0
Oct 6, 2024 Real Sociedad vs Atlético 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Atlético: 8.0 vs Real Sociedad: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético Madrid Score 1.0 3
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Real Sociedad (Home) vs Atlético Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Sociedad Share: 50.0% Atlético Madrid Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Sociedad
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
Atlético Madrid
ML
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
TTL
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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