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CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

1-4-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 8:00 AM ET
Balaidos

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-3-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
CELTA VIGO
61%
DRAW
21%
MÁLAGA
18%
▲ Edge: +27.50% (Málaga)
58% Book Odds: -140
DRAW --
19% Book Odds: +425
Book Implied: 58.30% / % / 19%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 54%
Under 2.5 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CELTA VIGO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Celta Vigo)
Celta VigoCelta Vigo (-0.5) 0 MálagaMálaga (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.7% / 54.3%

Shots (On Goal)

17(5) / 12(2)

Corners

1 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Celta Vigo -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Celta Vigo)

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

26.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

36.9%

Málaga By 1 goal

11.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Celta Vigo Loss
53% Win Prob
B
Sim Celta Vigo Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celta Vigo (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Celta Vigo (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Málaga 1 - 1
Mar 18, 2018 Celta Vigo vs Málaga 0 - 0
Oct 29, 2017 Málaga vs Celta Vigo 2 - 1
May 7, 2017 Málaga vs Celta Vigo 3 - 0
Jan 8, 2017 Celta Vigo vs Málaga 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Celta Vigo: 5.0 vs Málaga: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Málaga: 3.0 vs Celta Vigo: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Málaga Score 1.0 1
Celta Vigo Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Málaga (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Celta Vigo Share: 66.7% Málaga Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Celta Vigo
Málaga
Celta Vigo
Málaga
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
ATS
15% 1-5
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
TTL
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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