Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Guadalajara vs UNAM Guadalajara vs UNAM

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

5-3-2  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 9:07 PM ET
Estadio Akron

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
61%
DRAW
21%
UNAM
18%
▲ Edge: +38.80% (Pumas UNAM)
65% Book Odds: -184
DRAW 21% Book Odds: +369
18% Book Odds: +466
Book Implied: 64.80% / 21.30% / 17.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 58%
Under 2.75 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
UNAM
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-1) 0 UNAMUNAM (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

65.3% / 34.7%

Shots (On Goal)

8(5) / 15(5)

Corners

6 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

Guadalajara By 1 goal

26.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

36.9%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

11.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Guadalajara Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pumas UNAM (+1) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Pumas UNAM (+1) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 Guadalajara vs UNAM 3 - 0
Feb 18, 2023 UNAM vs Guadalajara 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Guadalajara: 10.0 vs UNAM: 4.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 0.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs UNAM: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 0
Guadalajara Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Guadalajara (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Guadalajara Share: 66.7% Pumas UNAM Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM
ML
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
60% 6-4
22% 2-7
ATS
86% 6-1-3
47% 4-5
57% 4-3-3
12% 1-7
TTL
83% 7-1-1
68% 6-3
56% 5-4-1
65% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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