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SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Corona

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-0-9  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
61%
DRAW
21%
JUÁREZ
18%
▲ Edge: +16.20% (FC Juárez)
49% Book Odds: +104
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
27% Book Odds: +275
Book Implied: 49% / 27.80% / 26.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 50%
Under 2.75 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Santos)
SantosSantos (-0.5) 0 JuárezJuárez (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.2% / 46.8%

Shots (On Goal)

25(10) / 12(5)

Corners

12 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Santos By 1 goal

26.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

36.9%

FC Juárez By 1 goal

11.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Santos Win
57% Win Prob
B
Sim Santos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Santos (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 Santos vs Juárez 2 - 1
Jan 18, 2026 Santos vs Juárez 2 - 2
Aug 22, 2025 Juárez vs Santos 2 - 1
Jan 29, 2025 Juárez vs Santos 1 - 0
Oct 6, 2024 Santos vs Juárez 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +180.0% more
Santos: 5.0 vs Juárez: 14.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 1.0 vs Juárez: 0.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Santos: 3.0 vs Juárez: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FC Juárez Score 1.0 1
Santos Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Santos (Home) vs FC Juárez (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 66.7% FC Juárez Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
FC Juárez
Santos
FC Juárez
ML
50% 5-5
60% 6-4
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
ATS
44% 4-5-1
38% 3-5-2
67% 6-3-1
78% 7-2-1
TTL
68% 6-3
56% 5-4-1
47% 4-5
78% 7-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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