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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

72-83  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

60-95  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | SP
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Joe Ryan 6-10 3.84 1.16 133.2 146
Reid Detmers 6-8 3.36 1.05 174.0 199
6-10 W-L 6-8
3.84 ERA Ldr 3.36
1.16 WHIP Ldr 1.05
133.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 174.0
146 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 199
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
45%
📊
ANGELS
55%
TWINS 49% Book Odds: +105
ANGELS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 69%
Under 7.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (+1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (-1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

63.7%

Angels Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.80
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.80
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ LAA 8 - 0
Sep 19, 2026 MIN @ LAA 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 MIN @ LAA 3 - 0
Sep 17, 2026 MIN @ LAA 4 - 5
Jul 12, 2026 LAA @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Los Angeles LAA
159
Games Played
159
4.53 ▲
Runs / Game
4.03
.244 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.718 ▲
OPS
.679
184 ▲
Home Runs
151
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +55.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Minnesota: 0.2
Walks (L5) +40.5% more
Los Angeles: 3.1 vs Minnesota: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5) +19.1% more
Los Angeles: 10.6 vs Minnesota: 8.9
Home Runs (L5) +61.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.8 5
LAA Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 8.6 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 8.9 12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 8.3 / 12.3 19.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.2 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -124 / +103 → +105 / -126 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
75-84-0 (47.2%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
61-98-0 (38.4%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
85-64-10
O: 57.1% / U: 43.0% Total +/-: +1.0
LAA
68-88-3
O: 43.6% / U: 56.4% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
MIN
LAA
MIN
ML
59% 94-65
51% 82-78
55% 87-72
50% 79-80
ATS
60% 95-64
59% 94-66
51% 81-78
59% 94-65
TTL
52% 80-74-5
51% 77-75-8
51% 79-75-5
52% 79-72-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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