Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Padres MIA @ SD

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

76-79  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

86-69  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Eury Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Eury Perez

#39 | SP
@
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eury Perez 7-11 3.99 1.24 144.1 155
Casey Mize 6-9 3.69 1.14 124.1 107
7-11 W-L 6-9
3.99 ERA Ldr 3.69
1.24 WHIP Ldr 1.14
144.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 124.1
155 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 107
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
37%
📊
PADRES
63%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (SD)
MARLINS 43% Book Odds: +131
PADRES 61% Book Odds: -159
Book Implied: 43.30% / 61.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Diego)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
San Diego Padres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

30.9%

Padres Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

MIA By 1-2 runs

13.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

7.8%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
5.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
63% Win Prob
A
Sim Padres Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIA @ SD 3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026 MIA @ SD 6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026 MIA @ SD 2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026 SD @ MIA 5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026 SD @ MIA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
San Diego SD
158
Games Played
158
4.45 ▲
Runs / Game
4.40
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.243
.327 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.398
.727 ▲
OPS
.716
163
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +61.5% more
San Diego: 1.8 vs Miami: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +47.4% more
San Diego: 21.5 vs Miami: 14.6
Hits (L5) +34.1% more
San Diego: 12.6 vs Miami: 9.4
Walks (L5) +12.6% more
San Diego: 3.1 vs Miami: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.5 6
SD Score 5.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.6 / 9.4 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.9 11.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 21.5 / 14.6 19.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +167 / -204 → +131 / -159 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
13%TICKETS87%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
95%TICKETS5%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
78-81-0 (49.1%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
88-70-0 (55.7%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
81-74-4
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
74-80-4
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIA
SD
MIA
ML
51% 80-78
48% 76-83
52% 81-76
55% 86-71
ATS
54% 85-73
57% 90-69
55% 86-71
54% 85-72
TTL
51% 78-75-5
56% 87-68-4
54% 82-69-5
53% 81-72-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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