NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
89-65 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
81-74 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | 14-6 | 1.95 | 0.90 | 184.2 | 228 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-3 | 3.77 | 1.17 | 124.0 | 84 |
14-6
W-L
7-3
1.95 Ldr
ERA
3.77
0.90 Ldr
WHIP
1.17
184.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
124.0
228 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
84
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
62%
DIAMONDBACKS
38%
YANKEES
62%
Book Odds: -164
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
Book Odds: +136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
61%
Under 7.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.5%
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Arizona
3.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
NYY @ ARI
4 - 8
Sep 19, 2026
NYY @ ARI
3 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
NYY @ ARI
9 - 2
Apr 3, 2025
ARI @ NYY
7 - 9
Apr 2, 2025
ARI @ NYY
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Arizona
ARI
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+49.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Walks (L5)
+38.4% more
New York: 3.9
vs
Arizona: 2.4
OPS (Season)
+32.1%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.0
3
ARI Score
3.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.0
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 9.6
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 15.2
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109
→
-164 / +136
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
NYY
ARI
NYY
ML
54%
87-74
47%
76-85
54%
86-74
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
56%
89-71
53%
86-76
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
81-73-7
49%
73-77-9
53%
82-72-7
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