Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Rockies SEA @ COL

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

72-83  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

57-98  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | SP
@
Jose Quintana
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Quintana

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryce Miller 4-9 4.19 1.16 107.1 106
Jose Quintana 2-3 5.27 1.51 41.0 20
4-9 W-L 2-3
4.19 Ldr ERA 5.27
1.16 Ldr WHIP 1.51
107.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 41.0
106 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 20
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
60%
📊
ROCKIES
40%
▲ Edge: +0.70% (SEA)
MARINERS 60% Book Odds: -149
ROCKIES 45% Book Odds: +123
Book Implied: 59.80% / 44.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
Over 10.5 50%
Under 10.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

35.4%

Rockies Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 6
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 6
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Mariners Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 SEA @ COL 2 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 SEA @ COL 3 - 5
Sep 18, 2026 SEA @ COL 5 - 4
Sep 25, 2025 COL @ SEA 2 - 6
Sep 24, 2025 COL @ SEA 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Colorado COL
158
Games Played
158
4.05
Runs / Game
▲ 4.63
.232
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.312
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .415
.690
OPS
▲ .737
179 ▲
Home Runs
172
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +56.3% more
Seattle: 1.3 vs Colorado: 0.6
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
Seattle: 0.7 vs Colorado: 0.2
Walks (L5) +30.2% more
Seattle: 3.5 vs Colorado: 2.4
Home Runs (Season) +3.9% more
Seattle: 179.0 vs Colorado: 172.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 6.0 3
COL Score 4.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 11.2 / 9.3 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 8.5 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.4 / 16.2 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.5 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -186 / +153 → -149 / +123 ↑
87%TICKETS13%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
71%TICKETS29%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5 → 10.5
55%TICKETS45%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
74-84-0 (46.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
COL
57-101-0 (36.1%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(36.7%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.9%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
82-68-8
O: 54.7% / U: 45.3% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
75-78-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SEA
COL
SEA
ML
60% 94-63
50% 79-79
54% 85-72
53% 83-75
ATS
60% 94-63
61% 96-62
52% 82-75
59% 93-65
TTL
59% 89-62-6
55% 81-67-10
50% 76-75-6
52% 77-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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