WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
73-82 | Road
8
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
75-80 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-6 | 3.35 | 1.27 | 102.0 | 99 |
| Michael McGreevy | 7-9 | 3.83 | 1.24 | 160.0 | 112 |
2-6
W-L
7-9
3.35 Ldr
ERA
3.83
1.27
WHIP
Ldr 1.24
102.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 160.0
99
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 112
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
40%
CARDINALS
60%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (STL)
NATIONALS
51%
Book Odds: -104
CARDINALS
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
St. Louis
5.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ STL
3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
WSH @ STL
8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
WSH @ STL
9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
STL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026
STL @ WSH
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
St. Louis
STL
159
▲
Games Played
158
5.08
▲
Runs / Game
4.49
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.315
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.744
▲
OPS
.695
207
▲
Home Runs
161
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+161.0% more
St. Louis: 1.8
vs
Washington: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+49.0% more
Washington: 0.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+32.3% more
Washington: 12.5
vs
St. Louis: 8.5
Walks (L5)
+24.4% more
Washington: 4.1
vs
St. Louis: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
8
STL Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.8 / 0.2
2.0 / 4.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.4
14.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.2
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.5 / 12.5
16.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
-104 / -115
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
75-84-0
(47.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-82-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
83-68-8
O: 55.0% / U: 45.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
STL
72-78-8
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
52%
81-74
57%
90-68
51%
80-77
55%
87-71
ATS
57%
88-67
58%
91-67
53%
83-74
56%
89-69
TTL
46%
66-79-10
49%
75-77-6
50%
74-73-10
41%
63-89-6
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