ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
91-64 | Road
6
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
77-78 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hayden Wesneski
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | 9-5 | 3.49 | 1.30 | 141.2 | 110 |
| Hayden Wesneski | 5-2 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 48.2 | 38 |
9-5
W-L
5-2
3.49 Ldr
ERA
3.70
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
141.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
48.2
110 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
38
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
ASTROS
62%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (HOU)
BRAVES
47%
Book Odds: +114
ASTROS
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
HOU @ ATL
3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025
HOU @ ATL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Houston
HOU
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.757
▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Houston: 0.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.3% more
Houston: 9.4
vs
Atlanta: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+40.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+27.2% more
Atlanta: 9.6
vs
Houston: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
6
HOU Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.6
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.5
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 16.9
16.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.4
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
+114 / -137
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
50%
81-82
46%
77-90
47%
77-87
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
96-71
55%
90-74
52%
87-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
83-73-11
45%
69-86-9
49%
76-80-11
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