Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Rangers TOR @ TEX

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

76-79  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

78-77  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jose Soriano
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Soriano

#40 | SP
@
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Soriano 12-7 3.56 1.27 169.1 159
Cal Quantrill 9-5 2.90 1.05 108.2 81
12-7 W-L 9-5
3.56 ERA Ldr 2.90
1.27 WHIP Ldr 1.05
169.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 108.2
159 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 81
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
40%
📊
RANGERS
60%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (TEX)
BLUE JAYS 50% Book Odds: +100
RANGERS 52% Book Odds: -109
Book Implied: 50% / 52.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Texas)
Blue JaysTOR (-1.5) 0 RangersTEX (+1.5)
Texas Rangers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

36.3%

Rangers Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 TOR @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 TOR @ TEX 2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 TOR @ TEX 1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026 TEX @ TOR 3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 TEX @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Texas TEX
159 ▲
Games Played
158
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.16
.248 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.382
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.692
OPS
▲ .712
150
Home Runs
▲ 176
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +77.5% more
Texas: 5.3 vs Toronto: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5) +22.4% more
Texas: 8.4 vs Toronto: 6.8
Home Runs (Season) +17.3% more
Texas: 176.0 vs Toronto: 150.0
Total Bases (L5) +15.8% more
Texas: 11.4 vs Toronto: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.8 2
TEX Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 7.3 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 6.8 12.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 9.9 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 5.3 / 3.0 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118 → +100 / -109 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
33%TICKETS67%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
79%TICKETS21%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
77-82-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
79-80-0 (49.7%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(47.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
80-74-5
O: 51.9% / U: 48.1% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
81-69-9
O: 54.0% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TOR
TEX
TOR
ML
53% 84-75
46% 72-86
57% 90-68
50% 79-78
ATS
57% 90-69
56% 89-69
61% 96-62
49% 77-80
TTL
52% 76-70-13
52% 79-74-5
54% 79-66-13
45% 69-83-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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