Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Pirates KC @ PIT

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

67-88  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

78-77  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bubba Chandler
STARTING PITCHER

Bubba Chandler

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Noah Cameron 9-8 3.84 1.19 166.1 149
Bubba Chandler 8-9 4.28 1.35 147.1 132
9-8 W-L 8-9
3.84 Ldr ERA 4.28
1.19 Ldr WHIP 1.35
166.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 147.1
149 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 132
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
51%
📊
PIRATES
49%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (KC)
ROYALS 50% Book Odds: -101
PIRATES 54% Book Odds: -119
Book Implied: 50.20% / 54.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 59%
Under 8.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
RoyalsKC (-1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

36.3%

Pirates Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.80
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 KC @ PIT 3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026 KC @ PIT 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 KC @ PIT 5 - 8
Jul 9, 2025 PIT @ KC 3 - 4
Jul 8, 2025 PIT @ KC 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.718
OPS
▲ .734
170
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +55.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Hits (L5) +76.5% more
Pittsburgh: 10.9 vs Kansas City: 6.2
Total Bases (L5) +57.2% more
Pittsburgh: 17.5 vs Kansas City: 11.1
Walks (L5) +16.2% more
Pittsburgh: 3.6 vs Kansas City: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.2 5
PIT Score 3.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.9 / 6.2 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.2 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.0 7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 11.1 20.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +153 / -186 → -101 / -119 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
80%TICKETS20%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
KC
PIT
KC
ML
52% 82-77
55% 89-72
52% 85-78
56% 90-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 81-82
58% 93-67
TTL
47% 72-81-6
58% 90-64-7
50% 79-78-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Halpin's Heroics and Pitching Mastery Lift Guardians to 2-1 ALCS…
hawaiitribune_herald 14 minutes ago
Jake Bauers: The Unlikely Hero Who Propelled Brewers to NLCS MVP
si 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Dodgers' Dave Roberts Shuts Down Yoshinobu Yamamoto Relief Talk …
si 11 hours, 49 minutes ago
DL Hall's Three Postseason Wins Set Unlikely Brewers Franchise R…
si 11 hours, 56 minutes ago
Pirates Prospect Zander Mueth Faces Crucial Arizona Fall League …
si 12 hours, 3 minutes ago