Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Reds CHC @ CIN

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

86-69  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

72-83  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | SP
@
Nick Lodolo
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Lodolo

#40 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Boyd 8-5 4.16 1.24 114.2 89
Nick Lodolo 3-5 5.12 1.49 96.2 79
8-5 W-L 3-5
4.16 Ldr ERA 5.12
1.24 Ldr WHIP 1.49
114.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 96.2
89 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 79
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
56%
📊
REDS
44%
CUBS 60% Book Odds: -148
REDS 45% Book Odds: +123
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
158
Games Played
158
5.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.251 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.339 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.430 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.769 ▲
OPS
.699
217 ▲
Home Runs
208
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +43.9% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Errors (L5) +41.0% more
Chicago: 0.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +22.8% more
Chicago: 5.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +21.3% more
Chicago: 15.0 vs Cincinnati: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.0 5
CIN Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 8.8 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 8.3 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 15.0 4.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109 → -148 / +123 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
88-71-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CIN
73-85-0 (46.2%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
88-67-3
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +1.1
CIN
82-72-4
O: 53.3% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55% 86-69
56% 88-68
49% 77-79
52% 80-75
ATS
54% 84-71
59% 92-63-1
49% 77-79
47% 73-81-1
TTL
53% 79-71-5
53% 79-71-6
54% 81-70-5
47% 70-79-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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