Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Reds CHC @ CIN

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

86-69  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

72-83  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nick Lodolo
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Lodolo

#40 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Boyd 8-5 4.16 1.24 114.2 89
Nick Lodolo 3-5 5.12 1.49 96.2 79
8-5 W-L 3-5
4.16 Ldr ERA 5.12
1.24 Ldr WHIP 1.49
114.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 96.2
89 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 79
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
56%
📊
REDS
44%
CUBS 60% Book Odds: -148
REDS 45% Book Odds: +123
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.374
OPS
▲ .699
0
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +43.9% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Errors (L5) +41.0% more
Chicago: 0.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +21.3% more
Chicago: 15.0 vs Cincinnati: 11.8
Hits (L5) +11.4% more
Chicago: 8.8 vs Cincinnati: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.0 5
CIN Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 8.8 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 8.3 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 15.0 4.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109 → -148 / +123 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55% 88-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
51% 82-79
ATS
54% 86-73
61% 97-63-1
50% 80-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 81-73-5
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-72-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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