ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
61-94 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
80-75 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | 6-4 | 5.02 | 1.48 | 114.2 | 107 |
| Tanner Bibee | 6-15 | 4.16 | 1.18 | 177.1 | 140 |
6-4
W-L
6-15
5.02
ERA
Ldr 4.16
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.18
114.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 177.1
107
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 140
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
33%
GUARDIANS
67%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (CLE)
ATHLETICS
38%
Book Odds: +163
GUARDIANS
64%
Book Odds: -178
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
ATH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
5.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Athletics
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATH @ CLE
0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
ATH @ CLE
6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026
ATH @ CLE
3 - 5
May 3, 2026
CLE @ ATH
1 - 7
May 2, 2026
CLE @ ATH
14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.719
▲
OPS
.696
194
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+83.8% more
Cleveland: 5.0
vs
Athletics: 2.7
Total Bases (L5)
+59.4% more
Cleveland: 14.9
vs
Athletics: 9.4
Hits (L5)
+56.2% more
Cleveland: 8.2
vs
Athletics: 5.3
Home Runs (L5)
+45.4% more
Cleveland: 1.7
vs
Athletics: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.5
6
CLE Score
5.5
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 5.3
15.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.2
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 9.4
28.0 / 18.0
Walks
5.0 / 2.7
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +162 / -198
→
+163 / -178
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
90-80-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
82-87-1
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATH
CLE
ATH
ML
54%
90-76
59%
95-67
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
95-71
52%
84-78
58%
97-70
50%
81-80
TTL
55%
90-74-2
54%
84-73-5
43%
71-93-2
42%
66-90-5
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