PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
85-70 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
71-84 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 3-9 | 5.54 | 1.44 | 115.1 | 100 |
| Christian Scott | 4-5 | 3.76 | 1.26 | 105.1 | 127 |
3-9
W-L
4-5
5.54
ERA
Ldr 3.76
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
115.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
105.1
100
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 127
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
32%
METS
68%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (NYM)
PHILLIES
49%
Book Odds: +104
METS
56%
Book Odds: -125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Phillies
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
159
Games Played
159
4.43
▲
Runs / Game
4.29
.240
▲
Avg (AVG)
.238
.312
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.309
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.393
.707
▲
OPS
.703
180
Home Runs
▲
197
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.6% more
New York: 8.3
vs
Philadelphia: 6.1
Hits (L5)
+28.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Philadelphia: 7.0
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
New York: 0.3
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+9.4% more
New York: 197.0
vs
Philadelphia: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.5
3
NYM Score
5.5
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.0
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.1
10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.8
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.3
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -123
→
+104 / -125
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
87-72-0
(54.7%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
73-86-0
(45.9%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(42.1%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
74-76-9
O: 49.3% / U: 50.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
75-72-12
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
49%
77-79
58%
92-66
49%
76-80
49%
78-80
ATS
58%
91-65
65%
102-56
49%
76-80
50%
79-79
TTL
55%
78-65-13
56%
84-66-8
50%
72-71-13
50%
74-75-8
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