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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

84-71  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

94-60  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
@
Freddy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Freddy Peralta

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brayan Bello 6-7 4.74 1.43 104.1 79
Freddy Peralta 9-11 4.67 1.34 158.0 146
6-7 W-L 9-11
4.74 ERA Ldr 4.67
1.43 WHIP Ldr 1.34
104.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 158.0
79 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 146
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
54%
📊
RAYS
46%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (BOS)
RED SOX 44% Book Odds: +125
RAYS 60% Book Odds: -151
Book Implied: 44.40% / 60.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 64%
Under 7.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

63.7%

Rays Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

TB By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +61.1% more
Boston: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +83.1% more
Tampa Bay: 5.5 vs Boston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.2 1
TB Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.1 / 6.8 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.8 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 11.3 11.0 / 14.0
Walks 5.5 / 3.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -126 → +125 / -151 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
30%TICKETS70%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7.5 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
102-65-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
77-84-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 96-69
50% 80-80
58% 96-69
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-67
55% 91-74
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 74-82-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 79-76-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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