MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
97-58 | Road
1
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
75-80 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | 4-5 | 4.30 | 1.27 | 96.1 | 92 |
| Trevor Rogers | 10-10 | 4.22 | 1.22 | 157.2 | 143 |
4-5
W-L
10-10
4.30
ERA
Ldr 4.22
1.27
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
96.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 157.2
92
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
49%
ORIOLES
51%
BREWERS
52%
Book Odds: -109
ORIOLES
53%
Book Odds: -111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
64%
Under 7.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Baltimore
5.2
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIL @ BAL
3 - 0
Sep 19, 2026
MIL @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 18, 2026
MIL @ BAL
6 - 5
May 21, 2025
BAL @ MIL
8 - 4
May 20, 2025
BAL @ MIL
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.743
▲
OPS
.711
154
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+102.9% more
Baltimore: 2.1
vs
Milwaukee: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+29.2% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.3% more
Baltimore: 12.1
vs
Milwaukee: 9.7
Total Bases (L5)
+23.7% more
Baltimore: 17.9
vs
Milwaukee: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.8
1
BAL Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 9.8
4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
12.1 / 9.7
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 14.4
6.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -149 / +123
→
-109 / -111
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
108-60-0
(64.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(53.0%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
74-89-5
O: 45.4% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIL
BAL
MIL
ML
53%
83-73
62%
101-63
57%
90-69
51%
84-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
94-70
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-85
TTL
54%
81-70-5
40%
63-93-8
51%
78-75-6
50%
78-78-8
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