Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Padres MIA @ SD

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

76-78  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

85-69  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nick Pivetta
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Pivetta

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips 5-6 3.55 1.33 119.0 96
Nick Pivetta 2-2 3.60 1.00 25.0 31
5-6 W-L 2-2
3.55 Ldr ERA 3.60
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.00
119.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 25.0
96 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 31
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
36%
📊
PADRES
64%
MARLINS 37% Book Odds: +169
PADRES 67% Book Odds: -206
Book Implied: 37.20% / 67.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Padres Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Padres Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIA @ SD 3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026 MIA @ SD 6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026 MIA @ SD 2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026 SD @ MIA 5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026 SD @ MIA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.727
OPS
▲ .925
168 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +58.2% more
San Diego: 22.7 vs Miami: 14.3
Home Runs (L5) +46.0% more
San Diego: 1.7 vs Miami: 1.1
Hits (L5) +42.0% more
San Diego: 12.9 vs Miami: 9.1
Runs per Game (Season) +36.1% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 2
SD Score 5.2 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 12.9 / 9.1 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 9.8 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 22.7 / 14.3 19.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +167 / -204 → +169 / -206
9%TICKETS91%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
24%TICKETS76%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
87%TICKETS13%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIA
SD
MIA
ML
51% 85-83
48% 78-84
51% 85-82
55% 88-72
ATS
54% 91-77
56% 91-71
55% 92-75
54% 86-74
TTL
51% 82-80-6
56% 88-69-5
54% 86-74-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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