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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

72-82  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

59-95  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Connor Prielipp
STARTING PITCHER

Connor Prielipp

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Connor Prielipp 5-7 5.24 1.34 113.1 117
Grayson Rodriguez 4-7 6.10 1.56 87.0 79
5-7 W-L 4-7
5.24 Ldr ERA 6.10
1.34 Ldr WHIP 1.56
113.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 87.0
117 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 79
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
52%
📊
ANGELS
48%
TWINS 53% Book Odds: -112
ANGELS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
TwinsMIN (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

36.3%

Angels Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

17.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ LAA 8 - 0
Sep 19, 2026 MIN @ LAA 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 MIN @ LAA 3 - 0
Sep 17, 2026 MIN @ LAA 4 - 5
Jul 12, 2026 LAA @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
187 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +41.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +17.6% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +15.6% more
Minnesota: 12.4 vs Los Angeles: 10.5
Runs per Game (Season) +11.4% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.2 3
LAA Score 3.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.4 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 10.4 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 12.4 4.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.3 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +108 → -112 / -108 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
64%TICKETS36%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
87%TICKETS13%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
MIN
LAA
MIN
ML
59% 96-66
52% 84-78
55% 89-73
50% 80-81
ATS
60% 97-65
59% 95-67
51% 82-80
59% 95-66
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 78-75-9
52% 82-75-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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