WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
72-82 | Road
9
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
75-79 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 12-5 | 3.12 | 1.17 | 164.2 | 194 |
| Kyle Leahy | 10-4 | 3.33 | 1.31 | 135.0 | 128 |
12-5
W-L
10-4
3.12 Ldr
ERA
3.33
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
164.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
135.0
194 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
128
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
40%
CARDINALS
60%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (STL)
NATIONALS
53%
Book Odds: -112
CARDINALS
52%
Book Odds: -107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
5.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ STL
3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
WSH @ STL
8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
WSH @ STL
9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
STL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026
STL @ WSH
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.744
▲
OPS
.691
210
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+92.0% more
St. Louis: 1.2
vs
Washington: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+30.8% more
St. Louis: 4.2
vs
Washington: 3.2
Total Bases (L5)
+26.1% more
Washington: 11.7
vs
St. Louis: 8.7
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Washington: 0.6
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
9
STL Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.3
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 7.6
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.3
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.7 / 11.7
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.2
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
-112 / -107
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
53%
85-74
57%
92-69
52%
84-77
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-68
53%
85-76
57%
91-70
TTL
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-78-6
50%
76-75-10
42%
65-90-6
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