Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Rockies SEA @ COL

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

72-82  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

56-98  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Woo
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Woo

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gabriel Hughes
STARTING PITCHER

Gabriel Hughes

#43 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Woo 12-9 3.88 1.05 162.1 163
Gabriel Hughes 0-8 6.37 1.45 59.1 50
12-9 W-L 0-8
3.88 Ldr ERA 6.37
1.05 Ldr WHIP 1.45
162.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 59.1
163 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 50
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
62%
📊
ROCKIES
38%
MARINERS 66% Book Odds: -192
ROCKIES 39% Book Odds: +158
Book Implied: 65.80% / 38.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
Over 10.5 49%
Under 10.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

35.4%

Rockies Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 6
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 6
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Rockies Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 SEA @ COL 2 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 SEA @ COL 3 - 5
Sep 18, 2026 SEA @ COL 5 - 4
Sep 25, 2025 COL @ SEA 2 - 6
Sep 24, 2025 COL @ SEA 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.693
OPS
▲ .739
182 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +25.4% more
Seattle: 4.2 vs Colorado: 3.2
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Seattle: 0.6 vs Colorado: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +8.0% more
Seattle: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +13.2% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 6.0 5
COL Score 4.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.2 / 9.4 15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 8.2 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 14.8 20.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -186 / +153 → -192 / +158 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
91%TICKETS9%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5 → 10.5
78%TICKETS22%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SEA
COL
SEA
ML
60% 97-64
50% 81-81
55% 88-73
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-64
60% 98-64
52% 83-78
59% 95-67
TTL
60% 93-62-6
56% 85-67-10
50% 77-78-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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