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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

76-78  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

77-77  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Cease
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Cease

#84 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kumar Rocker
STARTING PITCHER

Kumar Rocker

#80 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Cease 11-5 2.38 1.06 166.1 236
Kumar Rocker 5-11 4.54 1.43 138.2 132
11-5 W-L 5-11
2.38 Ldr ERA 4.54
1.06 Ldr WHIP 1.43
166.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 138.2
236 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 132
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
61%
📊
RANGERS
39%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS 59% Book Odds: -142
RANGERS 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 61%
Under 7.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Blue JaysTOR (-1.5) 0 RangersTEX (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

35.4%

Rangers Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 TOR @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 TOR @ TEX 2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 TOR @ TEX 1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026 TEX @ TOR 3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 TEX @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.692
OPS
▲ .713
152
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Toronto: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.5
Walks (L5) +15.6% more
Toronto: 3.5 vs Texas: 2.9
Home Runs (L5) +10.0% more
Toronto: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.7
Batting Avg (Season) +0.5%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Texas: 24.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 5.0 1
TEX Score 3.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.4 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 6.7 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 11.8 11.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.5 10.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +112 → -142 / +118 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
84%TICKETS16%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TOR
TEX
TOR
ML
53% 86-76
46% 74-87
57% 91-70
50% 80-80
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 90-71
61% 98-63
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 78-70-14
51% 80-76-5
55% 81-66-14
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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