MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
96-58 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
75-79 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Povich
#37 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 7-9 | 4.49 | 1.29 | 138.1 | 133 |
| Cade Povich | 2-1 | 4.05 | 1.44 | 33.1 | 25 |
7-9
W-L
2-1
4.49
ERA
Ldr 4.05
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
1.44
138.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
33.1
133 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
25
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
52%
ORIOLES
48%
▲ Edge: +3.80% (BAL)
BREWERS
60%
Book Odds: -149
ORIOLES
45%
Book Odds: +124
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIL @ BAL
3 - 0
Sep 19, 2026
MIL @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 18, 2026
MIL @ BAL
6 - 5
May 21, 2025
BAL @ MIL
8 - 4
May 20, 2025
BAL @ MIL
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.743
▲
OPS
.711
154
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+55.1% more
Milwaukee: 4.3
vs
Baltimore: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Milwaukee: 9.7
vs
Baltimore: 8.6
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.2
6
BAL Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.7
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.7 / 9.5
13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 14.6
18.0 / 14.0
Walks
1.9 / 4.3
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -149 / +123
→
-149 / +124
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIL
BAL
MIL
ML
53%
83-73
62%
101-61
57%
90-69
52%
84-78
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
94-68
57%
90-68-1
48%
78-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
40%
62-92-8
51%
78-75-6
50%
77-77-8
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