KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
67-87 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
77-77 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Dobnak
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Dobnak | 3-4 | 2.73 | 1.27 | 69.1 | 47 |
| Paul Skenes | 10-11 | 3.78 | 1.13 | 162.0 | 185 |
3-4
W-L
10-11
2.73 Ldr
ERA
3.78
1.27
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
69.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 162.0
47
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 185
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
44%
PIRATES
56%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (KC)
ROYALS
39%
Book Odds: +158
PIRATES
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
15.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
5.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
KC @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026
KC @ PIT
5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
KC @ PIT
5 - 8
Jul 9, 2025
PIT @ KC
3 - 4
Jul 8, 2025
PIT @ KC
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.718
OPS
▲
.734
170
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+69.4% more
Pittsburgh: 14.7
vs
Kansas City: 8.7
Hits (L5)
+68.1% more
Pittsburgh: 8.9
vs
Kansas City: 5.3
Home Runs (L5)
+56.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.3
vs
Kansas City: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.4% more
Pittsburgh: 9.5
vs
Kansas City: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.8
5
PIT Score
5.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.9 / 5.3
15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.5
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 8.7
23.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -173
→
+158 / -193
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
KC
PIT
KC
ML
52%
82-77
55%
89-72
52%
85-78
56%
90-70
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
81-82
58%
93-67
TTL
47%
72-81-6
58%
90-64-7
50%
79-78-6
54%
83-70-7
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