CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
85-69 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
72-82 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Clay Holmes
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes | 6-7 | 2.85 | 1.15 | 91.2 | 71 |
| Chase Burns | 15-3 | 2.80 | 1.15 | 151.1 | 181 |
6-7
W-L
15-3
2.85
ERA
Ldr 2.80
1.15
WHIP
1.15
91.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 151.1
71
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 181
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
50%
REDS
50%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (CIN)
CUBS
60%
Book Odds: -149
REDS
45%
Book Odds: +124
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5
50%
Under 8.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CHC By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.374
OPS
▲
.699
0
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+24.9%
Cincinnati: 39.4%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.5
4
CIN Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.7
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.0
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 16.6
10.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.5
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -124 / +113
→
-149 / +124
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55%
88-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
80-80
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
81-74-6
54%
83-72-5
46%
72-83-6
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