DETROIT
TIGERSDET
72-81 | Road
1
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
78-75 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Framber Valdez
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Erick Fedde
#47 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 10-10 | 4.01 | 1.36 | 163.2 | 121 |
| Erick Fedde | 8-9 | 3.97 | 1.34 | 133.2 | 91 |
10-10
W-L
8-9
4.01
ERA
Ldr 3.97
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.34
163.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
133.2
121 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
91
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
54%
WHITE SOX
46%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (DET)
TIGERS
51%
Book Odds: -104
WHITE SOX
54%
Book Odds: -116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Chicago
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Loss
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
DET @ CHW
1 - 8
Sep 19, 2026
DET @ CHW
1 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
DET @ CHW
11 - 8
Sep 17, 2026
DET @ CHW
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
CHW @ DET
7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.720
OPS
▲
.826
181
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+35.1% more
Detroit: 4.9
vs
Chicago: 3.2
Errors (L5)
+22.7% more
Detroit: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 1.1
Home Runs (L5)
+18.0% more
Detroit: 0.9
vs
Chicago: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.2
1
CHW Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.7
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 6.7
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 13.8
10.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.9
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
-104 / -116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
DET
CHW
DET
ML
49%
81-86
54%
86-73
56%
94-73
54%
87-73
ATS
59%
99-68
64%
101-58
56%
93-74
57%
91-69
TTL
58%
96-69-2
46%
69-81-9
51%
84-81-2
46%
69-81-10
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