SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
84-69 | Road
9
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
56-97 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 11-9 | 3.03 | 1.15 | 175.0 | 148 |
| Tanner Gordon | 1-4 | 5.55 | 1.48 | 97.1 | 81 |
11-9
W-L
1-4
3.03 Ldr
ERA
5.55
1.15 Ldr
WHIP
1.48
175.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
97.1
148 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
81
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
60%
ROCKIES
40%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (COL)
PADRES
66%
Book Odds: -197
ROCKIES
38%
Book Odds: +162
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
Over 11.0
45%
Under 11.0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.2%
COL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4.8
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.0
Push
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim
u11.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925
▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
San Diego: 2.0
vs
Colorado: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Hits (L5)
+21.1% more
San Diego: 11.8
vs
Colorado: 9.3
OPS (Season)
+18.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.2
9
COL Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 11.8
9.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 5.9
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 20.0
11.0 / 28.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -174 / +144
→
-197 / +162
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11.5
→
11
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60%
97-64
51%
85-83
55%
88-73
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
91-77
52%
83-78
55%
92-75
TTL
60%
93-62-6
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-78-6
54%
86-74-6
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