MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
95-58 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
76-77 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Harrison
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wilber Dotel
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | 10-4 | 3.98 | 1.31 | 110.2 | 134 |
| Wilber Dotel | 1-5 | 4.84 | 1.36 | 35.1 | 36 |
10-4
W-L
1-5
3.98 Ldr
ERA
4.84
1.31 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
110.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
35.1
134 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
36
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
47%
PIRATES
53%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (PIT)
BREWERS
59%
Book Odds: -143
PIRATES
46%
Book Odds: +118
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
Pittsburgh
5.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.743
▲
OPS
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+43.8% more
Pittsburgh: 1.5
vs
Milwaukee: 1.1
Home Runs (Season)
+20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.0% more
Milwaukee: 9.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.8
4
PIT Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 10.1
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.7
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 15.5
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.5
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -137 / +114
→
-143 / +118
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIL
PIT
MIL
ML
52%
82-77
62%
101-61
52%
85-78
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
94-68
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
TTL
47%
72-81-6
40%
62-92-8
50%
79-78-6
50%
77-77-8
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom