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PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

2-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Sep 28 • 8:15 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

2-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Braden Mann None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
47%
📊
BEARS
53%
▲ Edge: +15.50% (CHI)
EAGLES 66% Book Odds: -198
BEARS 38% Book Odds: +164
Book Implied: 66.40% / 37.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 63%
Under 42.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Chicago)
EaglesPHI (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Chicago Bears (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

40.4%

Bears Cover

59.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

PHI By 1-6 points

15.1%

PHI By 7-13 points

12.6%

CHI By 1-6 points

17.0%

CHI By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 23
25.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
22
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 23
24
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bears (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
A
Sim Bears (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2026 PHI @ CHI 7 - 27
Nov 28, 2025 CHI @ PHI 24 - 15
Dec 18, 2022 PHI @ CHI 25 - 20
Nov 3, 2019 CHI @ PHI 14 - 22
Jan 6, 2019 PHI @ CHI 16 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.1% more
Chicago: 172.0 vs Philadelphia: 117.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.2% more
Chicago: 391.6 vs Philadelphia: 323.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.1% more
Chicago: 5.8 vs Philadelphia: 5.1
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
Chicago: 20.6 vs Philadelphia: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 21.8 7
CHI Score 25.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 18.6 24.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 219.6 / 205.4 247.0 / 141.0
Rushing Yards 172.0 / 117.7 128.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 391.6 / 323.1 375.0 / 248.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.1 5.4 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → -198 / +164 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 42.5 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
PHI
CHI
PHI
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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