Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Broncos LAR @ DEN

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

1-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 8:20 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

2-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Harrison Mevis
KEY GAME

Harrison Mevis

#92 | Place kicker
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Harrison Mevis None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
57%
📊
BRONCOS
43%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (LAR)
RAMS 52% Book Odds: -110
BRONCOS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.40% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 43.5 48%
Under 43.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
DENVER
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Denver)
RamsLAR (-1.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+1.5)
Denver Broncos (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

48.3%

Broncos Cover

51.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

LAR By 1-6 points

16.6%

LAR By 7-13 points

15.8%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.3%

DEN By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 22.50
21.2
DENVER
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
25
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 22.50
22
DENVER
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +0.6
D
Sim Rams (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAR @ DEN 26 - 30
Dec 25, 2022 DEN @ LAR 14 - 51
Oct 14, 2018 LAR @ DEN 23 - 20
Nov 16, 2014 DEN @ LAR 7 - 22
Nov 28, 2010 LAR @ DEN 36 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.1% more
Los Angeles: 135.3 vs Denver: 89.2
Total Yards (L5) +28.7% more
Los Angeles: 413.1 vs Denver: 294.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.1% more
Los Angeles: 277.8 vs Denver: 205.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +25.5% more
Los Angeles: 6.7 vs Denver: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 21.8 26
DEN Score 21.2 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 21.5 20.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 205.2 / 277.8 179.0 / 366.0
Rushing Yards 89.2 / 135.3 78.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 294.4 / 413.1 257.0 / 482.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.7 4.3 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -110 / -110 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 43.5 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -1.6
DEN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -1.6
DEN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.8
DEN
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LAR
DEN
LAR
ML
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
ATS
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
TTL
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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