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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

2-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Cameron Johnston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
49%
📊
STEELERS
51%
▲ Edge: +10.60% (PIT)
BENGALS 64% Book Odds: -180
STEELERS 40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 64.30% / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 71%
Under 42.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Pittsburgh)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

33.4%

Steelers Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CIN By 1-6 points

13.5%

CIN By 7-13 points

10.4%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 23
28
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
24
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 23
22
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Sim Steelers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CIN @ PIT 27 - 30
Nov 16, 2025 CIN @ PIT 12 - 34
Oct 16, 2025 PIT @ CIN 31 - 33
Jan 4, 2025 CIN @ PIT 19 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 PIT @ CIN 44 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.5% more
Pittsburgh: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.8% more
Cincinnati: 112.0 vs Pittsburgh: 86.4
Total Yards (L5) +20.8% more
Cincinnati: 328.1 vs Pittsburgh: 259.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Cincinnati: 216.1 vs Pittsburgh: 173.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 22.0 27
PIT Score 28.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 19.7 22.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 173.5 / 216.1 273.0 / 269.0
Rushing Yards 86.4 / 112.0 138.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 259.9 / 328.1 411.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.2 / 5.2 7.0 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → -180 / +150 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 42.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +0.9
PIT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +0.9
PIT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +0.1
PIT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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