Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Colts HOU @ IND

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

1-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Kai Kroeger None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
54%
📊
COLTS
46%
TEXANS 55% Book Odds: -122
COLTS 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 55% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 41.5 61%
Under 41.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-1.5) 0 ColtsIND (+1.5)
Houston Texans (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

58.5%

Colts Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

17.5%

IND By 1-6 points

15.3%

IND By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 21.50
21.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 21.50
22
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Texans (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ IND 17 - 19
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ HOU 30 - 38
Nov 30, 2025 HOU @ IND 20 - 16
Oct 27, 2024 IND @ HOU 20 - 23
Sep 8, 2024 HOU @ IND 29 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.9% more
Houston: 242.9 vs Indianapolis: 184.8
Total Yards (L5) +15.2% more
Houston: 335.9 vs Indianapolis: 284.7
First Downs (L5) +10.7% more
Houston: 21.0 vs Indianapolis: 18.7
Turnovers (L5) +20.5% more
Indianapolis: 1.4 vs Houston: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 24.5 17
IND Score 21.5 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 21.0 19.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 184.8 / 242.9 211.0 / 153.0
Rushing Yards 99.9 / 92.9 89.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 284.7 / 335.9 300.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 4.8 4.2 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +102 → -122 / +102
65%TICKETS35%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 41.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-: -2.8
IND Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-: -2.8
IND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.7
IND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
HOU
IND
HOU
ML
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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