Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Lions NYJ @ DET

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

1-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

2-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
23%
📊
LIONS
77%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (DET)
JETS 28% Book Odds: +260
LIONS 77% Book Odds: -325
Book Implied: 27.80% / 76.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 49.5 46%
Under 49.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
JetsNYJ (+7) 0 LionsDET (-7)
Detroit Lions (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

23.8%

Lions Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

NYJ By 1-6 points

10.7%

NYJ By 7-13 points

7.3%

DET By 1-6 points

15.3%

DET By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 21.20
28.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
18
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 21.20
28
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lions Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Lions Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lions (-7) Push
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim Lions (-7) Push
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYJ @ DET 24 - 31
Dec 18, 2022 DET @ NYJ 20 - 17
Sep 10, 2018 NYJ @ DET 48 - 17
Sep 28, 2014 DET @ NYJ 24 - 17
Nov 7, 2010 NYJ @ DET 23 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +43.5% more
Detroit: 251.3 vs New York: 175.1
Total Yards (L5) +35.2% more
Detroit: 371.1 vs New York: 274.4
First Downs (L5) +32.6% more
Detroit: 23.5 vs New York: 17.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +31.6% more
Detroit: 5.7 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 18.5 24
DET Score 28.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 17.7 24.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 251.3 / 175.1 250.0 / 277.0
Rushing Yards 119.8 / 99.4 131.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 371.1 / 274.4 381.0 / 335.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 4.3 6.0 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +260 / -325 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +7 / -7 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 49.5 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
DET Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
DET
2-4-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.8
DET
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NYJ
DET
NYJ
ML
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
ATS
50% 3-3-1
43% 3-4-1
67% 4-2-1
43% 3-4-1
TTL
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
29% 2-5
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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