Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Bills LAC @ BUF

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

3-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Tommy Doman Jr.
KEY GAME

Tommy Doman Jr.

#39 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Tommy Doman Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
41%
📊
BILLS
59%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (LAC)
CHARGERS 28% Book Odds: +260
BILLS 77% Book Odds: -325
Book Implied: 27.80% / 76.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 50.5 39%
Under 50.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (+7) 0 BillsBUF (-7)
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

59.9%

Bills Cover

40.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC +3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

15.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

12.5%

BUF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 21.80
25
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 21.80
27
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Bills Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chargers (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.5
B
Sim Chargers (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.5
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAC @ BUF 16 - 24
Dec 23, 2023 BUF @ LAC 24 - 22
Nov 29, 2020 LAC @ BUF 17 - 27
Sep 16, 2018 LAC @ BUF 31 - 20
Nov 19, 2017 BUF @ LAC 24 - 54
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +44.8% more
Buffalo: 25.0 vs Los Angeles: 17.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +32.3% more
Buffalo: 238.5 vs Los Angeles: 180.2
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Buffalo: 389.5 vs Los Angeles: 308.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Buffalo: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 21.5 16
BUF Score 25.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 17.2 22.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 238.5 / 180.2 174.0 / 217.0
Rushing Yards 151.0 / 128.2 176.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 389.5 / 308.4 350.0 / 348.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 2.2 5.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 5.3 5.6 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +260 / -325 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +7 / -7 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 50.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-7-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.9 ATS +/-: -8.6
BUF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 7.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-6-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.9 ATS +/-: -8.6
BUF Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -5.8
BUF
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
LAC
BUF
LAC
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
ATS
29% 2-5
33% 2-4-1
14% 1-6
0% 0-6-1
TTL
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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